Patriot Realm

Virginia’s six million voters will go to the polls today to elect a new governor. This local election has taken on national importance, however, as it is seen as the first real test of President Joe Biden and his administration’s agenda. In normal times, this election should have been a comfortable victory for the Democrats.  

Virginia is traditionally a solidly Democratic state. In last year’s presidential election, Virginians voted for Joe Biden by 54% to Donald Trump’s 44%. The state even voted in favour of Hillary Clinton in 2016. The state assembly is controlled by the Democrats, the majority of its House representatives are Democrats, as are its two senators, and the party has held the governorship since 2014.  

Up until mid-October, the vast majority of polls pointed to yet another Democrat victory, but since then the Republicans have tightened the race and most commentators are now saying that it is too close to call. Indeed, some are even predicting a Republican win.

You know an election is tight when dirty tricks become the order of the day. Take, for example, the orchestrated stunt last week where five uniformed people stood in front of the Republican battle bus offering their support. Many took this as proof that the Republicans had the support of neo-Nazis; it later turned out, however, that the stunt had been the work of the Lincoln Project, a group of ex-Republicans who hate Donald Trump and are now avid Democrat supporters. The spectre of Trump haunts this election, as it will all future ones unless and until the divisive former president tires of political life. Something he shows absolutely no sign of doing.  

One interesting aspect of the campaign has been the differing tactics deployed by the parties. The Democrats have focussed their campaign on national issues, and a plethora of national leaders – including President Joe Biden, his VP Kamala Harris, and Barack Obama – have all descended on the state to campaign for their candidate Terry McAuliffe.  

This seems to be a self-defeating method of campaigning at the moment, however, as Biden’s poll ratings have plunged to 42% and Harris’ are equally poor. Moreover, a recent poll also found that a massive 71% of Americans feel the country is headed in the wrong direction under the current administration.

By contrast, the Republicans have kept their campaign focussed on local state issues, including low taxes and safe communities. Indeed, the Republican candidate, Glenn Youngkin, has said that his “Day One Plan” will put Virginia on a path to “having the best jobs, the best schools, and the safest communities in America.”

Although former President Trump has not actively campaigned in Virginia for Youngkin, he is holding a virtual rally for him today, and has claimed that “if my base turns out, he's going to win.” However, although Youngkin has said he is “honoured” to have the backing of the former president, he has declined to take part in the rally. And as the Republicans clearly have the momentum, it makes no sense to switch from a locally focussed campaign to introduce national personalities like Trump. 

Meanwhile, Democrat McAuliffe, knowing it might boost his support in the largely blue state, has invoked the ex-president’s name a lot, despite claiming the election is “not about Trump”.